Chinese KLJ-3 pulse Doppler fire control radar copied from Israeli technologies for "peaceful" rise

Chinese KLJ-3 pulse Doppler fire control radar

The first step in the reverse engineering process is to import a couple of kits and then copy them part by part to final assembly.

Recently, Russian media reports that the Chinese J-10 fighter uses NIIR Phazotron Company’s Zhuk Zhemchoug airborne fire control radar. In fact, PLA Air force J-10 is equipped domestic KLJ-3 pulse Doppler fire control radar.

KLJ-3 radar is indeed the result of the introduction of foreign technology, but it is not from Russia, but Israel.

In 1986, J-10 fighter program started. When the Chinese Air Force dispatched pilots go to France to fly Mirage 2000 for evaluation, the Chinese pilots were impressed with Mirage-2000′s avionics and advanced cockpit display system. After the test in France, Pilot Ge Wenyong bluntly said that if counterpart Mirage 2000 pilots do not make mistakes, PLA Air Force J-7 and J-8 fighters have no chance of winning. But Chinese electronics industry was weak at 1980s, and it is difficult to meet the development requirements of the new combat aircraft. In this case, the Heads of Chinese military has determined to actively introduce advanced foreign technology, and push the the development of Chinese avionics industry.

In later 1980s, China began aviation technical cooperation with Israel, including the a full set of LAVI fighter avionics systems. LAVI’s original EL/M-2035 multifunction pulse Doppler fire control radar, which uses a phase parameters transmitter and multi-channel receiver, programmable signal processing system, look-down capacity as 46 km detection range. Its air-to-air modes include RWS (range-while-search), TWS (Track-While-Scan), dogfight, single target tracking; the air-to-ground modes include ranging, real beam mapping and Doppler beam sharpening. The radar has weights of 138 kg. However when the LAVI project ended, the development of EL/M-2035 was also cancelled.

Later, Israel improved EL/M-2035 improvements into EL/M-2032, which was displayed for the first time at the 1987 Paris Air Show. EL/M-2032 in aerial target designation mode has the maximum search distance to reach 150 km; in the air-to-sea mode detection range over 300 km. There have been reports that the Israeli Air Force are not satisfied with F-16I fighter AN/APG-68V-9 radar’s performance and hoped to replace by EL/M-2032 radar, but the United States refused. This also reflects high- performance EL/M-2032, rising as a threat to the U.S. radar.

The introduction of the LAVI aviation electronic systems in China, was known as the 873 avionics integrated system based on 1553B data bus, which was officially launched in 1989, began to conduct test flights in 1993. Other sub-systems including airborne radar, inertial navigation, mission computer display management sub-systems, air data computers, plug-in management system. The 873 project has laid a solid foundation for J-10 to reach full operational capability and greatly raise the R&D Level of Chinese aviation industry.

China imported a multi-Ministry EL/M-2032-radar airborne radar, on which China develops KLJ-3 radar. KLJ-3 uses a double mode grid controlled TWT transmitter, so that the radar is the equivalent of two transmitters, greatly improve the performance of the radar. KLJ-3 works by low operating ratio in the low PRF mode, but also work in high work than high PRF mode. It means KLJ-3 features with real multifunction performance.

The real specifications of KLJ-3 radar are still unknown, but we can deduce its performance by KLJ-7 radar. Pakistan Air Force JF-17 is equipped with KLJ-7 airborne pulse Doppler radar with maximum detection range of 130 km, TWS mode can simultaneously track 10 targets and simultaneously guided two SD-10A active radar-guided air-to-air missile attack two biggest threats. KLJ-7 also has ground moving target indication, synthetic aperture imaging and other advanced work mode, with a strong ground attack capability. KLJ-7 antenna aperture and power supply capacity is lower than the J-10′s KLJ-3, so you can imagine KLJ-3 has better tactical and technical indicators.
China started airborne radar cooperation with Russia at the beginning of 1990s. In addition to NO01E, NO01VE radar for supporting the Su-27SK, Su-30MKK fleets, China also imported some Russian radars including ZHUK Series radar and PERO passive phased array antenna.

Chinese J-8IIM fighter is the first one equipped with Russian ZHUK-8-2 radar. After the disintegration of the former Soviet Union, the development of ZHUK radar was not quite smoothly, and Russian Air Force did not use it. The ultimate success of ZHUK-M-type radar developed in 2002 ultimately is equipped with the Russian MiG-29SMT fighter and the Indian Navy’s MiG-29KUB fighter.

“Zhemchoug” radar is a light version of ZHUK-M radar with performance decreased. “Zhemchoug” radar actually was later than the time of the production of F-10 fighter. Chinese J-10 airborne radar is also different with “Zhemchoug” IFF antenna design, therefore J-10 has no relation with Russia “Zhemchoug” radar.

Through the combination of technology introduction and self-development, Chinese airborne radar has made a breakthrough in the beginning of 2000s, making significant progress in the field of antenna precision manufacturing and transmitter power density, brings a strong impetus to Chinese radar tactical and technical indicators. Chinese-made radar may learn some from Russian radar technology, but the Chinese fighter almost has no possibility of directly using Russian radar. Besides, China is also developing airborne active phased array radar.

How to avoid mass-scale death, destruction and extinction

The FAO Food Price Index shows that high food prices have been around for the past few years. The FAO, in its recent Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, explains that we can expect prices to rise, as illustrated below.

The Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture mentions, in its Food Price Outlook, 2012-2013, that the "drought has affected prices for corn and soybeans as well as other field crops which should, in turn, drive up retail food prices".

Global food supply is under stress as extreme weather becomes the new norm. Farmers may be inclined to respond to drought by overusing ground water, or by slashing and burning forest, in efforts to create more farmland. Such practices do not resolve the problems; instead, they tend to exacerbate the problems over time, making things progressively worse.

The diagram below shows that there are many climatological feedbacks (ten of which are pictured) that make climate change worse. At the top, the diagram pictures vicious cycles that are responses by farmers that can add to make the situation even worse. Without effective action, the prospect is that climate change and crop failure combine to cause mass death and destruction, with extinction becoming the fourth development of global warming.

How can we avoid that such a scenario will eventuate? Obviously, once we are in the fourth development, i.e. mass-scale famine and extintion, it will be too late for action. Similarly, if the world moves into the third development, i.e. runaway global warming, it will be hard, if not impossible to reverse such a development. Even if we act now, it will be hard to reverse the second development, i.e. accelerated warming in the Arctic.

The most effective action will target causes rather than symptoms of these developments.

Part 1. Since emissions are the cause of global warming, dramatic cuts in emissions should be included in the first part of the responses. In addition, action is needed to remove excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and oceans. Storing the carbon in the soil will also improve soil quality, as indicated by the long green arrow on the left.

Part 2. Solar radiation management is needed to cool the Arctic.

Part 3. Methane management and further action is needed, e.g. to avoid that methane levels will rise further in the Arctic, which threatens to trigger further releases and escalate into runaway global warming. Measures to reduce methane can also benefit soil quality worldwide, as indicated by the long green arrow on the right.

Thus, the proposed action tackles the prospect of mass death and extinction by increasing soil fertility, as illustrated by the image below.

As indicated at the bottom of the image, the most effective policies to accomplish the goals set out in both part 1. and part 3. are feebates, preferably implemented locally.

Indian Airforce SU30MKI aircraft over the Indian Ocean

Click to zoom

High methane levels persist in December 2012

The image below was posted earlier at Methane contributes to accelerated warming in the Arctic. As mentioned there, this is a compilation of images produced by Dr. Leonid Yurganov, comparing methane levels between November 21-30, 2008 (below left), and November 21-30, 2012 (below right).

Dr. Yurganov has released two further images this year, i.e. for December 1-10, 2012 (below left), and for December 11-20, 2012 (below right).

The images show that the highest methane levels show up above the water, as opposed to above land, indicating that methane is being released from the seabed across the Arctic. The images further show that high levels of methane persist in December 2012.

Apart from comparing 10-day periods, we can also look at methane levels for individual days. The NOAA image below shows methane levels up to 2167 ppb on December 27, 2012, for the morning set of measurements.

To better see where the high (yellow) levels of methane were measured, a map with empty data is added below, showing the location of the continents more clearly on the map.

Pressure levels at which measurements are taken are displayed in hectopascals (symbol hPa) which are numerically equivalent to millibars (mb). A pressure of 600 mb (or hPa) corresponds with an altitude of 13794.9 ft (4204.7 m). By comparison, air pressure at mean sea level is 1013.25 hPa (millibar), or 29.92 inches of mercury.

The map below, from apocalypse4realmethane2012, shows methane measurements taken on the same day (December 27, 2012, morning set), but at 718 mb, which corresponds with an altitude that is a bit closer down to sea level. The map focuses on the Arctic and shows geographic names. If you like, click on the map to enlarge it.

Methane measurements were taken with the IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) instrument, fitted onto the European Space Agencys (ESA) MetOp series of polar orbiting satellites.

For further analysis, the NOAA image with surface temperature anomalies for December 28, 2012, is added above, showing anomalies up to 20 degrees Celsius. Furthermore, the NOAA image with sea surface temperature anomalies for December 27, 2012, is added below, showing anomalies up to 5 degrees Celsius.

Albedo changes in the Arctic

How global warming and feedbacks are causing huge albedo changes in the Arctic.

Snow cover decline

Decline of the snow cover on land in the northern hemisphere is accelerating, as illustrated by the image below and the image underneath on the right. (1)

Image credit: Rutgers University

Fresh snow can have an albedo as high as 0.85, meaning that up to 85% of the sunlight falling on snow can get reflected back into space. As the snow melts, its structure changes making it less reflective, i.e. its albedo will go down, to as low as 40%. (2)

As a result, more sunlight gets absorbed, accelerating the melting process. Eventually, where snow melts away, spots of bare soil become exposed, and dark wet soil has a very low albedo, reflecting only between 5% and 15% of the sunlight. Thus, even more sunlight gets absorbed and the soil's temperature increases, causing more of the remaining snow to melt. (2)

Changes in vegetation can further accelerate this process. Russia's boreal forest - the largest continuous expanse of forest in the world - has seen a transformation in recent years from larch to conifer trees. Larch trees drop their needles in the fall, allowing the vast, snow-covered ground in winter to reflect sunlight and heat back into space and helping to keep temperatures in the region very cold. But conifers such as spruce and fir retain their needles, which absorb sunlight and increase the forest's ground-level heat retention. (3)

Albedo, from Wikipedia

A conversion from larch to evergreen stands in low-diversity regions of southern Siberia would generate a local positive radiative forcing of 5.1±2.6 W m−2. This radiative heating would reinforce the warming projected to occur in the area under climate change. (4)

Tundra in the Arctic used to be covered by a white blanket of snow most of the year. However, as the landscape is warming up, more trees and shrubs appear. Scientists who studied part of the Eurasian Arctic, found that willow and alder shrubs, once stunted by harsh weather, have been growing upward to the height of trees in recent decades. They now rise above the snowfall, presenting a dark, light-absorbing surface. This increased absorption of the Sun's radiation, combined with microclimates created by forested areas, adds to global warming, making an already-warming climate warm even more rapidly. (5 & 6)

Furthermore, encroachment of trees onto Arctic tundra caused by the warming may cause large release of carbon to the atmosphere, concludes a recent study. This is because tundra soil contains a lot of stored organic matter, due to slow decomposition, but the trees stimulate the decomposition of this material. (7)


Sea ice decline

In the Arctic, sea ice volume has fallen dramatically over the years, as illustrated by the image on the right. The trend points at 2014 as the year when Arctic sea ice will first reach zero volume for some time during that year. (8)

The Arctic Ocean looks set to be ice-free for a period of at least three months in 2015 (August, September and October), and for a period of at least 6 months from the year 2020 (June through to November). (9)

Decline of the Arctic sea ice is accelerating, due to numerous feedbacks. As the Arctic atmosphere warms up, any snow cover on top of the ice will melt away ever quickly, decreasing the surface albedo and thus reinforcing the warm-up. As melt ponds appear on top of the ice, the albedo will drop even further.

Sam Carana's Diagram of Doom pictures ten feedbacks that jointly work to accelerate sea ice decline. (10)

The image below shows the three areas where albedo change will be felt most in the Arctic, i.e. sea ice loss, decline of albedo in Greenland and more early and extensive retreat of snow and ice cover in other areas in the Arctic. (8)

Big changes in the Arctic within years, by Sam Carana

References

1. Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Anomalies 1967-2012 June, Rutgers University
climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=6

2. Albedo, Albedo Change blog
albedochange.blogspot.com/2009/02/albedo-change.html

3. Shift in Northern Forests Could Increase Global Warming, Scientific American, March 28, 2011
scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=shift-northern-forests-increase-global-warming

4. Sensitivity of Siberian larch forests to climate change, Shuman et al., April 5, 2011, Wiley.com
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02417.x/abstract

5. Warming turns tundra to forest
ox.ac.uk/media/news_stories/2012/120604.html

6. Eurasian Arctic greening reveals teleconnections and the potential for structurally novel ecosystems, Macias-Fauria et al., 2012
nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n8/full/nclimate1558.html

7. Expansion of forests in the European Arctic could result in the release of carbon dioxide, University of Exeter news, June 18, 2012
exeter.ac.uk/news/featurednews/title_214902_en.html

8. Big changes in the Arctic within years, Sam Carana, October 26, 2012, Arctic-News blog
arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/10/big-changes-in-arctic-within-years.html

9. Getting the Picture, Sam Carana, August 2012, Arctic-News blog
arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/getting-the-picture.html

10. Diagram of Doom, Sam Carana, August 2012, Arctic-News blog
arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/diagram-of-doom.html


Further reading

- Albedo change in the Arctic
arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/07/albedo-change-in-arctic.html

- Greenland is melting at incredible rate
arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/07/greenland-is-melting-at-incredible-rate.html

- Albedo change in the Arctic threatens to cause runaway global warming
arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/10/albedo-change-in-the-arctic-threatens-to-cause-runaway-global-warming.html

Russian Air Force Gets First Six Su-35S Fighter Jets

SU-35S

MOSCOW, December 28 – The Sukhoi aircraft maker delivered on Friday the first six Su-35S fighter jets to the Russian Air Force, the company said.
The acceptance documents were signed by Defense Ministry officials at the Komsomolsk-on-Amur aircraft manufacturing plant in Russia’s Far East.

The Sukhoi holding has fulfilled its obligations on the delivery of this type of aircraft under the 2012 state defense order,” the company said in a statement.
“The fighter jets will fly to their designated home base in the near future,” the statement said.
The Su-35, powered by two 117S engines with thrust vectoring, combines high maneuverability and the capability to effectively engage several air targets simultaneously using both guided and unguided missiles and weapon systems.
The aircraft has been touted as "4++ generation using fifth-generation technology."
The Russian Defense Ministry is planning to buy about 90 Su-35s, which will gradually become the core of Russia’s fighter jet fleet.

Indian Navy : After successful launch, K-15 missile ready to join Arihant nuclear submarine

The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) ends 2012 on an upbeat note, successfully launching the underwater missile K-15 off the Visakhapatnam coast on Wednesday. The missile darted 20 km into the air, after a gas generator ejected it from the pontoon that lay submerged a few scores of metres in the Bay of Bengal, and sped 650 km before splashing into the sea in its 11th flight trial. 

After one more flight, the two-stage missile will be integrated with Arihant, India’s nuclear-powered submarine, and test-fired from the ship. “It is a fantastic system. It is a very powerful and accurate system,” said A.K. Chakrabarti, Programme Director, K-15, and Director of the Hyderabad-based Defence Research and Development Laboratory (DRDL), which designed and developed the missile.

“India is the fifth country to have an underwater launch system. The other countries are the U.S., Russia, France and China,” he said. 

Avinash Chander, Chief Controller (Missiles and Strategic Systems), DRDO, termed it “a good flight” and said the test “formed part of the pre-production clearance.” Twelve K-15 missiles, each 10 metres long and weighing six tonnes and capable of carrying nuclear warheads, will form part of the deadly arsenal of Arihant, which is powered by an 80-MWt reactor that uses enriched uranium as fuel and light water as coolant and moderator. 

Informed sources said the reactor had already been integrated with the Arihant at Visakhapatnam. “The commissioning process is on,” they said. The reactor would reach criticality within the first few months of 2013. The harbour trials of the ship have been completed, and it is ready for sea trials.

India has been developing the K-4 missile, to be launched from submarines. It will be more powerful than K-15, with a range of 3,000 km.

Three generations of Chinese PLAAF fighters in air force Night fighting training in the Tibetan plateau

Chinese fighters practice war games in Tibet to continue their occupation of Tibet

Indo-Russian - BrahMos set to become a “Super Rocket”

The BrahMos supersonic cruise missile is all set to become a “super rocket” soon, which would beef up India’s tactical defence capability significantly. However, the test launches of the air variant of the BrahMos II hyper-sonic missile, which were supposed to be completed by 2012, are experiencing delays. The realistic date for completion of these tests is now believed to be 2015.
 Sources in the Indian strategic establishment said India has upgraded its BrahMos missiles by “wedding” these with Russia’s advanced satellite navigation systems. The “marriage” of the BrahMos’s navigation systems with Russia's Kh-555 and Kh-101 strategic long-range cruise missiles has made BrahMos a “super rocket”. The word “rocket” here is used in context of a weapon, not a space rocket.

The new avatar of BrahMos will have to undergo tests and field trials before it becomes operational with the Indian defence services. However, this would not take unduly long.
The improved version of BrahMos will be endowed with a sub-strategic capability and would increase its tactical range too. The new version would also be capable of carrying nuclear warheads and can be launched from sea, land and air, like the old version. Its range of hitting targets would now be over 180-300 miles (300-500 km).


The new air-launched version of BrahMos will be carried by Sukhoi Su-30 MKI fighter aircraft. The Indian Air Force is set to be a far more potent force by 2020 when it is scheduled to deploy 200 advanced Sukhoi fighters, equipped with the new version of BrahMos “super rockets.” This will be a lethal combination and will make the Sukhois strategic bombers.

Another important feature of the upgraded BrahMos missile is that it has added GPS-GLONASS technology to it. This is of vital strategic importance as GLONASS, Russia’s navigation service provider, gives India access to military signals, while the American GPS does not.
BrahMos missile is jointly developed by India and Russia and is named after two major rivers – Brahmaputra of India and Muscova of Russia. The missile is capable of flying at a very high speed at tree-top levels which adds to its tactical utility.

BrahMos is a two-stage missile with a solid propellant booster engine as its first stage which brings it to supersonic speed and then gets separated. BrahMos is the first supersonic cruise missile known to be in service and is deployed on INS Rajput since 2005. The missile has 'fire and forget' principle, adopting varieties of flights on its way to the target. Its destructive power is enhanced due to large kinetic energy on impact. Its cruising altitude could be up to 15 km (9.3 miles) and terminal altitude is as low as 10 meters.
Compared to existing state-of-the-art subsonic cruise missiles, BrahMos has three times more velocity, 2.5 to 3 times more flight range, 3 to 4 times more seeker range and 9 times more kinetic energy. The missile has identical configuration for land, sea and sub-sea platforms and uses a Transport Launch Canister (TLC) for transportation, storage and launch. The missile is universal for multiple platforms and can pin point accuracy with high lethal power aided by large kinetic energy on impact. It has shorter flight times leading to lower target dispersion and quicker engagement.
 So far India has deployed BrahMos missile in the western sector only against Pakistan. However, since the missile is fitted on a mobile launcher it can be transported anywhere in the country and deployed within a short time. The Indian Army is planning to deploy it against China as well in near future. India started a massive war preparedness drill in Arunachal Pradesh in the north-eastern sector codenamed “Pralaya” on February 29, 2012.
BrahMos is a stealth supersonic cruise missile that can be launched from submarines, ships, aircraft or land. It is about three-and-a-half times faster than the USA's subsonic Harpoon cruise missile and three times faster than USA's subsonic Tomahawk missile. India has also planned an air-launched variant which is expected to come out in 2012 and will make India the only country with supersonic missiles in all the defence forces. However, the 2012 deadline is unlikely to be met.
A hypersonic version of the missile, which is also presently under development with speed of Mach 7 to boost aerial fast strike capability, is expected to be ready by 2016. BrahMos has the capability of attacking surface targets by flying as low as 10 meters.

The air launch version and the submarine launch version of the missile system are in progress. The Indian Army has so far placed orders for the BrahMos missile to be deployed by three regiments of the Army and two of them have already been inducted operationally. A hypersonic version of the missile, which is also presently under development with speed of Mach 7 to boost aerial fast strike capability, is expected to be ready by 2016.

The army and navy versions of the BrahMos missile weigh three tons or more. The missile is also available for exports whosoever is interested in it as long as they are ready to shell out about $2-3 million apiece. The cost depends on the version. The BrahMos has been developed as a joint venture between the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) of India and the Federal State Unitary Enterprise NPO Mashinostroyenia (NPOM) of Russia under BrahMos Aerospace. The missile is named after two rivers, the Brahmaputra of India and the Moskva of Russia.

Bangladesh army gets 44 new Chinese-made main battle tanks MBT2000 and Locating Radar LLC-2

Bangladesh Army has started introduction of the fourth-generation China-made MTB-2000 main battle tanks procured through outright purchase, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said Thursday, December 13, 2012.

China Marine Corps brigade under the People's Liberation Army Navy(PLAN) amphibious landing

Methane contributes to accelerated warming in the Arctic

Above combination image featured earlier in the post Striking increase of methane in the Arctic. The images were produced by Dr. Leonid Yurganov, Senior Research Scientist, JCET, UMBC, who presented his findings at the AGU Fall Meeting 2012. The image below gives an update for 2012, showing an image with methane levels at 600 hPa.

Temperature anomalies on the inset on above image are averages for the full month November, whereas the methane levels displayed on the left are for the first ten days of November only. Using temperature maps for the same periods in such comparisons may result in even more striking simularities between methane levels and temperatures. For a more complete picture, further comparisons between November 2008 and November 2012 are added, for days 11-20 (below),

and for days 21-30 (below).

The images show that the highest methane levels show up above the water, as opposed to above land, indicating that methane is being released from the seabed across the Arctic.

Temperatures have meanwhile changed. In November 2012, there were high temperature anomalies in east Siberia. There now are very low temperatures throughout Siberia, as illustrated by the Wunderground map below, which shows high temperatures. Temperatures as low as -60.5°F (-51.4°C) were recorded in Susuman, east Siberia, both on December 13th and 17th, 2012.

The now hugely deformed polar jet stream and high levels of methane in the Arctic are only two out of numerous feedbacks that contribute to accelerate warming in the Arctic. Without rapid action, we can expect such wild swings in temperature to get even worse, making more extreme weather the new norm.

Polar jet stream appears hugely deformed

World climate zones used to be kept well apart by jet streams. On the northern hemisphere, the polar jet stream was working hard to separate the Tundra and Boreal climate zones' colder air in the north from the Temperate climate and the Subtropical climate zones' warmer air in the south.

NOAA image

The greater the difference in temperature between north and south, the faster the jet streams spin around the globe, the polar jet stream at about 60°N and the subtropical jet stream at about 30°N, as illustrated on above image. 

NOAA image

The polar jet stream used to move at speeds of up to 140 miles per hour, while following a relatively straight track that was meandering only slightly, i.e. with waves that go up and down only a little bit.

Accordingly, the Northern Temperate Zone used to experience only mild differences between summer and winter weather, rather than the extreme hot or cold temperatures that we've experienced recently.

Accelerated warming in the Arctic is decreasing the difference in temperature between the Arctic and the Northern Temperate Zone. This is causing the polar jet to slow down and become more wavy, i.e. with larger loops, as illustrated by the NASA image further below.

Polar jet stream (blue) & subtropical
jet stream (red) - NOAA image

                   Diagram of Doom, Sam Carana

This is a feedback of accelerated warming in the Arctic that reinforces itself. As the jet stream slows down and its waves become more elongated, cold air can leave the Arctic more easily and come down deep into the Northern Temperate Zone. Conversily, more warm air can at the same time move north into the Arctic.

The 'open doors' feedback further decreases the difference in temperature between the Arctic and the Northern Temperate Zone, in turn further slowing down the jet stream and making it more wavy, and thus further accelerating warming in the Arctic.

The polar jet stream can travel at speeds greater than 100 mph. Here, the fastest winds are colored red; slower winds are blue. View animated version here. Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

How does this affect temperatures? If we look at the average surface temperature anomalies for the month November 2012, we see huge differences in temperatures. Areas in the East Siberian Sea and in east Siberia registered average surface temperature anomalies for November 2012 of about 10 degrees Celsius, compared with 1951-1980. At the same time, areas in Alaska and Canada have been experiencing anomalies of about -10 degrees Celsius.

This suggests a hugely deformed polar jet stream, as indicated by the contour lines on above image on the right. This is very worrying, as this is only one out of many feedbacks that come with accelerated warming in the Arctic. There are at least ten such feedbacks, as depicted in the diagram below, from the earlier post Diagram of Doom.

       Diagram of Doom, Sam Carana

One of the most frightening feedbacks is the albedo loss in the Arctic. The speed at which changes are taking place can be illustrated with the image below, from the earlier post Big changes in the Arctic within years.

The urgency to act is perhaps best expressed by means of the two images below, which can constitute a fitting end-of-year message if you like to share them further. The image below highlights that Arctic sea ice minimum volume in 2012 was only 19.3% what it was in 1979. The background image, prepared by Wipneus, shows an exponential trend projecting a 2013 minimum of only 2000 cubic km of sea ice, with a margin of error that allows Arctic sea ice to disappear altogether next year, i.e. nine months from now.

Finally, the image below highlights that, in 2012, Arctic sea ice area fell by 83.7% in just 168 days, again illustrating how fast things can eventuate. 

For more quotes, see the page at http://arcticmethane.blogspot.com/p/quotes.html

Earlier posts:
- Opening the Doorways to Doom

- Opening further Doorways to Doom

- Diagram of Doom

- How to avert an intensifying food crisis

- Albedo change in the Arctic threatens to cause runaway global warming

- Big changes in Arctic within years