Update on September Arctic cyclone

By Paul Beckwith, 
edited by Sam Carana

The loss of Arctic sea ice appears to be flattening out at the moment. The above image shows Arctic sea ice extent (total area of at least 15% ice concentration) for the last 7 years, compared to the average 1972-2011, as calculated by the Polar View team at the University of Bremen, Germany.

Paul Beckwith, B.Eng, M.Sc. (Physics),
Ph. D. student (Climatology) and
Part-time Professor, University of Ottawa 

However, Paul Beckwith warns that Hurricane Leslie looks set to capture Hurricane Michael just off the Canadian maritimes and strongly impact Nova Scotia and Newfoundland (large hurricane), to then continue northward and start to affect Arctic climate by compressing isobars creating large pressure gradients and thus high winds.

Paul points at the image below, from weather.unisys.com/gfsx, showing a 9 day GFSx model for Arctic region.

The model shows that an Arctic cyclone is amplified as a result of Leslie and a strong high pressure ridge is also generated over the Beaufort Sea. As the Arctic cyclone decreases in strength a strong cyclone is generated over Alaska.

“Needless to say this scenario would be very destructive to Arctic sea ice if it plays out,” Paul adds.  “Also, there is no apparent decrease in Arctic sea surface temperatures in projections out to September 12th, and no apparent salinity change. I will be amazed if this melt season does not last until the end of September or even into early October.”

View Paul Beckwith's September 8 presentation by clicking on the following link:
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0ByLujhsHsxP7QndrZjdKX2szTHM/edit


Or, view the presentation in the window below (it may take some time for the file to fully load).