Arctic Sea Ice 2015 - update 11

Arctic sea ice extent has been growing rapidly recently. The image below shows extent up to October 9, 2015 (marked by red dot).

Below is a comparison of sea ice thickness as on October 6, for the years (from left to right) 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. The comparison shows that decline has been strongest where sea ice used to be the thickest, i.e. over 3 meters thick.

One of the reasons why the thickest Arctic sea ice has declined so dramatically over the years is the rising ocean heat that is melting the sea ice from underneath. The image below illustrates the situation on October 5, 2015, when sea surface temperature anomalies were as high as 6.4°C, 7.4°C and 7.3°C (11.5°F 13.2°F and 13.1°F) off the North American coast, and as high as 9.4°C (16.8°F) near Svalbard.

Water temperatures are very high in the Arctic, as further illustrated by the image below showing Arctic sea surface temperature anomalies as at October 9, 2015.

Rising ocean heat is further illustrated by the graph below, showing August sea surface temperature anomalies on the Northern Hemisphere over the years.

[ from the earlier post: August 2015 Had Highest Sea Surface Temperature on Record ]

The situation is very dangerous, due to feedbacks and their interaction. The thicker sea ice used to act as a buffer, consuming ocean heat in the melting process. Without thicker sea ice, ocean heat threatens to melt the sea ice from below right up to the surface, causing the entire sea ice to collapse. As the sea ice declines, more open water will give rise to stronger winds and waves.

Furthermore, sunlight that was previously reflected back into space will instead be absorbed by the water, causing rapid rise of the temperature of the water. In places such as the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, the water is on a average only 50 m deep, so warmer water is able to reach the seafloor more easily there. As ocean heat keeps rising, there's a growing risk that heat will reach the Arctic Ocean seafloor and destabilize methane hydrates in sediments at the Arctic Ocean seafloor.

The image below shows a non-linear trend that is contained in the temperature data that NASA has gathered over the years, as described in an earlier post. A polynomial trendline points at global temperature anomalies of over 4°C by 2060. Even worse, a polynomial trend for the Arctic shows temperature anomalies of over 4°C by 2020, 6°C by 2030 and 15°C by 2050, threatening to cause major feedbacks to kick in, including albedo changes and methane releases that will trigger runaway global warming that looks set to eventually catch up with accelerated warming in the Arctic and result in global temperature anomalies of 16°C by 2052.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan.

Comparison of sea ice thickness on October 6, for the years (from left to right) 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015, shows that...

Posted by Sam Carana on Saturday, October 10, 2015

Arctic Sea Ice 2015 - Update 10

It looks like sea ice has passed its minimum extent for the year 2015, as illustrated by the image below.

There are some differences between the various websites measuring extent, such as to whether the 2015 low was the third or fourth lowest. Japanese measurements show that sea ice extent was 4.26 million square km on September 14, 2015, i.e. lower than the 2011 minimum of 4.27 million square km, as illustrated by the image below.

Meanwhile, the Polar Science Center at the University of Washington has announced that Arctic sea ice volume minimum was reached on September 12, 2015, with a total volume of 5,670 cubic km. The image below shows a polynomial trendline based on their annual Arctic sea ice volume minima, including this volume for 2015.

Importantly, the sea ice in many places is now less thick than it was in 2012, as illustrated by the image below, showing sea ice thickness on September 27, 2012 (panel left) and a forecast for September 27, 2015 (panel right).

The reason for the dramatic decrease in thickness of the multi-year sea ice is ocean heat, as illustrated by the image below, showing sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arctic as at September 21, 2015.

The water of the Arctic Ocean is very warm, not only at the surface, but even more so underneath the surface. What has contributed to this situation is described by the image below. From 2012, huge amounts of fresh water have run off Greenland, with the accumulated fresh water now covering a huge part of the North Atlantic.

Since it's fresh water that is now covering a large part of the surface of the North Atlantic, it will not easily sink in the very salty water that was already there. The water in the North Atlantic was very salty due to the high evaporation, which was in turn due to high temperatures and strong winds and currents. As said, fresh water tends to stay on top of more salty water, even though the temperature of the fresh water is low, which makes this water more dense. The result of this stratification is less evaporation in the North Atlantic, and less transfer of ocean heat to the atmosphere, and thus lower air temperatures than would have been the case without this colder surface water.

Meanwhile, global warming continues to heat up the oceans, while less of this ocean heat can now be transferred from the water to the atmosphere in the North Atlantic, since the fresh water is acting like a lid.

The danger is thus that warmer water will be pushed into the Arctic Ocean at lower depth, and that it will reach the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean where huge amounts of methane are contained in sediments. Ice acts like a glue, holding these sediments together and preventing destabilization of methane hydrates. Warmer water reaching these sediments can penetrate them by traveling down cracks and fractures in the sediments, and reach the hydrates.

The big melt in Greenland and the Arctic in general is causing further problems. Isostatic adjustment following melting can contribute to seismic events such as earthquakes, shockwaves and landslides that can destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments on the Arctic Ocean seafloor.

In the video below, by Nick Breeze, Professor Peter Wadhams discusses the situation.



The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as discussed at the Climate Plan.

The water of the Arctic Ocean is very warm, not only at the surface, but even more so underneath the surface. What has...
Posted by Sam Carana on Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Threatens - Update 9

The image below shows that Arctic sea ice had reached a level of 4.45 million square kilometers on September 16, 2015 (end of dark blue line at center of image).

NSIDC has meanwhile called the 2015 minimum, but the first sentence of their post hastens to add that on September 11, Arctic sea ice reached its likely minimum for 2015,  at 4.41 million square kilometers (1.70 million square miles), putting 2015 in the fourth lowest place since satellite records began. Arctic sea ice minimum was lower only in 2012 (dotted line), 2007 (light blue line) and 2011 (orange line). Sea ice extent was 4.413 million square kilometers both on September 9, 2015, as well as on September 10 and 11, 2015.

September 9 would be early for the sea ice to reach its minimum, as a comparison with earlier years on above image illustrates. The dark blue line on above image shows that sea ice extent fell slightly on September 16, compared to the day before, and is now below the 2011 extent (orange line) for this time of the year. Over the next few days, sea ice extent may well fall somewhat further, and reach a level below the 2011 minimum, thus reaching the third lowest minimum extent since record began. This could eventuate due to winds compacting the sea ice.

More importantly, sea ice thickness is still falling, as illustrated by the image below showing the sea ice thickness on September 9 in the left panel and a forecast for thickness on September 24 in the right panel.

The image below compares sea ice thickness between September 24, 2012 (left panel) with that forecast for September 24, 2015 (right panel).

Above image illustrates why the situation in 2015 is even more threatening than it was in 2012. Only the ice that is colored light green, yellow and red is more than 3 meters thick. In 2015, ocean heat has been melting the sea ice from underneath. So, even while the currently lower temperatures of the air may have resulted in a slight increase in extent over the past week, the added ice is very thin. Ocean heat first of all goes into melting the thickest sea ice, i.e. the parts that are meters below the surface. This because the water at surface level is colder than the water underneath the surface. This explains why much of the water surface will remain covered by (very thin) ice as air temperatures are now falling (compared to air temperatures over the past few months).

The image below shows sea surface temperatures as at September 17, 2015.

In conclusion, while the sea ice appears to have survived the 2015 melting season without collapsing, the threat that this will occur in the coming years is ominous. Lack of multi-year sea ice makes that sea ice is in a very vulnerable situation. Total collapse of sea ice is therefore more likely to happen in the coming years. Every time ocean heat will arrive in the Arctic Ocean at its fullest strength in future, this heat will no longer be able to be fully absorbed by the process of melting thick sea ice, so what's left of the sea ice will melt very quickly.

There is a strengthening El Niño, while more open water increases the chance that storms will develop that will push the last remnants of the sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. Storms can also mix warm surface waters all the way down to the seafloor, as discussed in this earlier post. Cyclones that emerge with greater force due to high sea surface temperatures further increase this danger.

The big danger is that ocean heat will cause methane contained in sediments on the Arctic Ocean seafloor to be released abruptly in large quantities, triggering further methane releases spiraling into runaway warming.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed in the Climate Plan.

Below is a text-only version of this post for radio.

Sea ice thickness on September 24, 2012 (left panel) compared to a forecast for September 24, 2015 (right panel). This...
Posted by Sam Carana on Friday, September 18, 2015

Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Threatens - Update 7

The image below shows Arctic sea ice extent, with the blue dot indicating that extent for August 30, 2015, was 4.804 million square kilometers. Satellite records shows that, at this time of the year, extent was only lower in 2007, 2011 and 2012.

There are a number of reasons why sea ice looks set to decrease dramatically over the next few weeks. On above image, extent for 2015 looks set to soon cross the lines for the years 2007 and 2011, while the sea ice today is in an even worse condition than one might conclude when looking at extent alone.

Thick sea ice is virtually absent compared to the situation in the year 2012 around this time of year, as illustrated by the image below that compares sea ice thickness on August 30, 2012 (left) with August 30, 2015 (right).

Furthermore, sea surface temperatures are very high. The North Pacific, on August 31, 2015, was about 1°C (1.8°F) warmer than it was compared to the period from 1971 to 2000, as illustrated by the Climate Reanalyzer image on the right.

As the image below shows, sea surface temperature anomalies are very high around North America, both in the Pacific Ocean and in the Atlantic Ocean.

The image below shows sea surface temperatures on August 30, 2015, indicating that a huge amount of ocean heat has accumulated in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of North America.

The Gulf Stream is carrying much of this warm water toward the Arctic Ocean. Additionally, warm water from the Pacific Ocean is entering the Arctic Ocean through the Bering Strait.

Above image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arctic as at August 31, 2015.

There still are a few weeks to go before sea ice can be expected to reach its minimum, at around half September 2015, while sea currents will continue to carry warmer water into the Arctic Ocean for months to come.

There is a strengthening El Niño, while more open water increases the chance that storms will develop that will push the last remnants of the sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. Storms can also mix warm surface waters all the way down to the seafloor, as discussed in this earlier post. Typhoons increase this danger. The above image show three typhoons in the Pacific Ocean on 30 August, 2015, and the Climate Reanalyzer image on the right shows them on September 1, 2015.

These typhoons are headed in the direction of the Arctic. The Climate Reanalyzer forecast for September 8, 2015, below shows typhoons in the Pacific Ocean close to the Arctic Ocean, as well as strong wind over the Arctic Ocean.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed in the Climate Plan.

Thick sea ice is virtually absent compared to the situation in the year 2012 around this time of year....
Posted by Sam Carana on Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Disappearance Of Thick Arctic Sea Ice

[ view full image at facebook ]

Arctic sea ice is in a horrible state. On August 16, 2015, Arctic sea ice extent was 5.786 million square km, the smallest extent on record for this time of year except for the years 2007, 2011 and 2012, as illustrated by the image on the right.

The situation today is even worse than one might conclude when looking at sea ice extent alone. Thick sea ice is virtually absent compared to the situation in the year 2012 around this time of year, as illustrated by the image below comparing sea ice thickness on August 16, 2012 (left) with August 16, 2015 (right).

The ice used to be over 4 m thick, or over 13 ft thick, north of Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago. This thick multi-year ice has been a feature of the Arctic sea ice for over 100,000 years. It used to be there all year long, unlike the thinner ice that could melt away entirely during the melting season.

The disappearance of this thick multi-year ice is a major development. Why? Until now, the thicker multi-year sea ice used to survive the melting season, giving the sea ice strength for the next year, by acting as a buffer to absorb heat that would otherwise melt away the thinner ice. Without multi-year sea ice, the Arctic will be in a bad shape in coming years, and huge amounts of heat that would otherwise go into melting the ice will instead be warming up the Arctic Ocean, further accelerating warming of its waters.

Absence of thick sea ice makes it more prone to collapse, and this raises the question whether the sea ice could collapse soon, even this year. Sea ice works like a mirror. Without sea ice, sunlight that was previously reflected back into space, will instead be absorbed by the Arctic. Albedo changes in the Arctic alone could more than double the net radiative forcing resulting from the emissions caused by all people of the world, as calculated by Prof. Peter Wadhams back in 2012.

Furthermore, there is a danger that loss of the sea ice will weaken the currents that currently cool the bottom of the sea, where huge amounts of methane may be present in the form of free gas or hydrates in sediments. This danger is illustrated by the image below by Reg Morrison, from an earlier post.

Absence of sea ice also goes hand in hand with opportunities for storms to develop over the Arctic Ocean. Such storms could push the remaining sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean. Such storms could also mix surface heat all the way down to the seafloor, where methane could be contained in sediments.

As described in an earlier post, sea surface anomalies of over 5 degrees Celsius were recorded in August 2007 (NOAA image right). Strong polynya activity caused more summertime open water in the Laptev Sea, in turn causing more vertical mixing of the water column during storms in late 2007, as described in this study, and bottom water temperatures on the mid-shelf increased by more than 3 degrees Celsius compared to the long-term mean.

Indeed, the danger is that heat will warm up sediments under the sea, containing methane in hydrates and as free gas, causing large amounts of this methane to escape rather abruptly into the atmosphere.

The image on the right, from a study by Hovland et al., shows that hydrates can exist at the end of conduits in the sediment, formed when methane did escape from such hydrates in the past.

Heat can travel down such conduits relatively fast, warming up the hydrates and destabilizing them in the process, which can result in huge abrupt releases of methane.

Since waters can be very shallow in the Arctic, much of the methane can then rise up through these waters without getting oxidized. As the methane causes further warming in the atmosphere, this will contribute to the danger of even further methane escaping, further accelerating local warming, in a vicious cycle that can lead to catastrophic conditions well beyond the Arctic. For additional feedbacks in the Arctic, see the feedbacks page. 

At the same time, ocean heat is at a record high and there's an El Niño that's still gaining strength. This ocean heat is likely to reach the Arctic Ocean in full strength by October 2015, at a time when sea ice may still be at its minimum. The image below shows sea surface temperatures on August 16, 2015 (left) and anomalies (right).

How warm is the water entering the Arctic Ocean? Merely looking at sea surface temperatures could make one overlook the full extent of the predicament we are in. Ocean heat traveling underneath the sea surface can be even warmer than temperatures showing up at the surface. This is illustrated by the image below indicating that on August 16, 2015, warm water emerged at the sea surface near Svalbard with temperatures as high as 14.9°C or 58.7°F, a 9.5°C or 17.1°F anomaly.

There still is about a month to go before sea ice can be expected to reach its minimum, at around half September 2015, while sea currents will continue to carry warmer water into the Arctic Ocean for months to come.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed in the Climate Plan. 

Thick sea ice is virtually absent compared to the situation in the year 2012 around this time of year, as illustrated by...
Posted by Sam Carana on Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Threatens

The image below compares the Arctic sea ice thickness on July 14, 2012 (left panel) and on July 14, 2015 (right panel), using Naval Research Laboratory images.

The Naval Research Laboratory's 30-day animation below shows how this situation developed, ending with a forecast for July 17, 2015, run on July 9, 2015.

The dramatic decline of the sea ice, especially north of North America, is the result of a combination of factors, including:

• very high levels of greenhouse gases over the Arctic Ocean
• very high levels of ocean heat 
• heatwaves over North America and Siberia extending high air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean
• wildfires triggered by these heatwaves resulting in darkening compounds settling on snow and ice
• very warm river water running into the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below.  

With still two months of melting to go before the sea ice can be expected to reach its minimum for 2015, the threat of sea ice collapse is ominous. The Arctic-News Blog has been warning for years about the growing chance of a collapse of the sea ice, in which case huge amounts of sunlight that previously were reflected back into space, as well as heat that previously went into melting the ice, will then instead have to be absorbed by the water, resulting in a dramatic rise of sea surface temperatures.

The image below shows the already very high sea surface temperature anomalies as at July 10, 2015.

More open water will then come with an increased chance of storms that can cause high sea surface temperatures to be mixed down all the way to seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which in many cases is less than 50 m (164 ft) deep.

Meanwhile, ocean heat is accumulating off the coast of North America, as illustrated by the image below showing sea surface temperature as high as 31.8°C (89.24°F) on July 8-9, 2015.

Massive amounts of ocean heat will be carried by the Gulf Stream into the Arctic Ocean over the next few months. The combined result of high sea surface temperatures being mixed down to the seafloor and the ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans can be expected to result in dramatic methane eruptions from the Arctic Ocean seafloor by October 2015.

Currently, methane levels are high, especially north of Greenland, as illustrated by the image below showing that on July 10, 2015 (am), levels as high as 2416 parts per billion were recorded at 6,041 m (19,820 ft) altitude, while mean methane levels also reached 1831 parts per billion at this altitude.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan.

ARCTIC SEA ICE COLLAPSE THREATENSThis image compares the Arctic sea ice thickness on July 14, 2012 (left panel) and on...
Posted by Sam Carana on Friday, July 10, 2015

Fracturing of the Jet Stream

Earlier this month, the jet stream was forecast to move over the Arctic Ocean north of Siberia on July 8, 2015, 12:00 UTC, in one, strong, long stream of wind, as discussed in the previous post and depicted below.

The situation has meanwhile been adjusted in a more recent forecast. This recent forecast shows the jet stream getting fractured over Siberia on July 8, 2015, 12:00 UTC, resulting in a sequence of vertical wind streams. This is a new development, rather unknown to the forecasting model that works on the basis of the jet stream flowing horizontally in one strong and narrow stream around the globe.

A further forecast has been added in the bottom panel, i.e. for July 12, 2015, 12:00 UTC, showing the jet stream moving well over the Arctic Ocean in two places, over the East Siberian Sea and over the Canadian Archipelago.

Fracturing of the jet stream and alignment along longitude, rather than latitude, is a worrying development. It is the most extreme form of what is described at Feedbacks in the Arctic as the "Open Doors" feedback or feedback #10, a feedback that makes it easier for warm air to move into the Arctic and for cold air move out of the Arctic, each of which will further contribute to a smaller temperature difference between the Equator and the North Pole, thus further changing the jet stream, in a self-reinforcing spiral.

The jet stream used to act as a barrier, keeping cold air in the Arctic and keeping temperate air in the temperate zone. As the jet stream fractures, more extreme weather - including more intense heatwaves - can be expected.

The result is further acceleration of warming in the Arctic, due to direct sunlight, due to warm wind carried north as the jet stream changes, due to warm water from rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean, due to soot from wildfires settling on the snow and ice, causing their further demise, etc.

The image below illustrates the impact of warm river water. Off the coast of Anadyr, in East Siberia, waters reached a temperature of 15.4°C (59.7°F) on July 5, 2015, a 9.2°C (16.6°F) anomaly.

The image below also shows the impact of warm water from rivers in Alaska. Major melting took place on St Lawrence Island, as evident by the low sea surface temperatures around the Island on July 2, 2015 (left panel), while by July 6, 2015, much of this colder water had mixed with the warmer water moving up the Bering Strait from the Pacific Ocean and with the warm river water from Siberia and Alaska.

The Naval Research Laboratory's 30-day animation below illustrates the dramatic fall in sea ice thickness.

The image below shows sea surface temperatures in the Arctic as at July 7, 2015.

With ocean heat at very high levels, the danger is that, as temperatures keep rising, further methane hydrates will get destabilized and further amounts of methane will be released in the Arctic. High methane levels have already been showing up for years over the Arctic Ocean, indicating that methane releases from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean are already taking place.

Above image shows that, on July 6, 2015, high methane levels show up north of Greenland (yellow oval). This could be a result of the heavy melting that is taking place on Greenland, exposing methane hydrates contained in the ice there. Hydrate destabilization on Greenland is discussed as feedback#21 at Feedbacks in the Arctic. Loss of ice mass on Greenland has fallen dramatically over the years and looks set to get even worse, as illustrated by the image below.

Dramatic ice mass loss on Greenland looks set to get even worse. See also discussion at the Controversy page.

Over the next few months, waters in the Arctic Ocean can be expected to further warm up and sea ice to further decline, all making that the situation can only be expected to worsen.
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan.

Sea surface temperatures in the Arctic as at July 7, 2015. http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/07/fracturing-of-the-jet-stream.html
Posted by Sam Carana on Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Dramatic Sea Ice Decline In Beaufort Sea in June 2015

The image below illustrates the dramatic fall in sea ice thickness (in m) in the Beaufort Sea over the past month. The left panel shows sea ice thickness on May 29, 2015, and the panel on the right shows sea ice thickness on June 29, 2015.

The 30-day animation below further illustrates this dramatic fall in sea ice thickness (from June 8-29, with forecast up to July 7, 2015).

Another perspective is sea ice concentration. The image below shows the high concentration back on May 1, 2015.

The 30-day animation below shows the dramatic fall in sea ice concentration (from June 8-29, with forecast up to July 7, 2015).

Below an interview by Judy Sole with Professor Peter Wadhams, held May 15, 2015, and entitled 'Our time is running out - The Arctic sea ice is going!'

Meanwhile, very high temperatures keep showing up within the Arctic Circle. On July 1, 2015, a temperature of 36°C (96.8°F) was reached near the Kolyma River that ends in the East Siberian Sea, as illustrated by the images below (green circle).

The image below also shows the location where this high temperature was reached (red marker), as well as the depth of the seabed and the Gakkel Ridge that runs in between the northern tip of Greenland and the Laptev Sea.

Related

- High Methane Levels over Laptev Sea
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/10/high-methane-levels-over-laptev-sea.html

- Accelerated Warming in the Arctic
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/06/accelerated-warming-in-the-arctic.html

- Gulf Stream brings ever warmer water into Arctic Ocean
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/06/gulf-stream-brings-ever-warmer-water-into-arctic-ocean.html

- High Temperatures in the Arctic
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/06/high-temperatures-in-the-arctic.html

- Heat Wave Forecast For Russia Early June 2015 

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/06/heat-wave-forecast-for-russia-early-june-2015.html

Dramatic Sea Ice Decline In Beaufort Sea in June 2015 http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/06/dramatic-sea-ice-decline-in-beaufort-sea-in-june-2015.html
Posted by Sam Carana on Tuesday, June 30, 2015